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10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 18, 2026?
kalshi

10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 18, 2026?

Volume:
$6,448

4.91% or above

 - Kalshi

4.91% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 18, 2026

Closed: Sep 18, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.91% or above

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$996
N/A
N/A
$692
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.01% or above

View
100%
85%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$761
N/A
N/A
$454
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.97% or above

View
100%
83%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$653
N/A
N/A
$323
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.87% or above

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$637
N/A
N/A
$620
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.99% or above

View
100%
84%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$617
N/A
N/A
$369
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.93% or above

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$421
N/A
N/A
$267
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.95% or above

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$329
N/A
N/A
$117
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.89% or above

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$287
N/A
N/A
$282
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.85% or above

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$253
N/A
N/A
$198
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.81% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.83% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.03% or above

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$585
N/A
N/A
$442
Settled
No
kalshi

5.05% or above

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$403
N/A
N/A
$307
Settled
No
kalshi

5.07% or above

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$277
N/A
N/A
$219
Settled
No
kalshi

5.09% or above

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$228
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by setting various threshold levels for evaluation on a specific future date. Each threshold represents a different level of yield that, if exceeded, triggers a positive outcome. The structure allows participants to assess probabilities across a range of yield scenarios.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury exceeds a specified threshold on September 18, 2026. Each market defines a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.80% to 5.08%. If the actual yield on that date is above the respective threshold for a given market, it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Expiration occurs at the sooner of two times: either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official data release for September 18, 2026, or one week after September 18, 2026. All markets share this uniform expiration framework, ensuring consistent timing across the range of yield thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 10Y Treasury yield market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, represented as probabilities. You can also view the price history of contracts related to this market, showing how expectations have shifted over time. The 24-hour volume, currently at $3,371, indicates the level of trading activity. Total volume for this market is $6,448. This provides a snapshot of how traders are positioning themselves on the future direction of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield on Sep 18, 2026 vary considerably. Some predict a continued rise due to inflationary pressures and Federal Reserve policy, while others anticipate a decline as economic growth slows. This market provides a real-time, aggregated view of what traders believe, which may differ from the average analyst prediction. It is a useful tool to compare against the range of expert opinions and see where the 'wisdom of the crowd' stands on this financial indicator.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts at any time, setting the price based on their expectations. The price reflects the probability of the 10-year Treasury yield being above or below a specific level on Sep 18, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price discovery process allows for a dynamic assessment of risk and potential returns, driven by the collective intelligence of the participants in this market. Contract prices are constantly adjusting as new information becomes available and traders update their views.

This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and will be the closing yield for trading on September 18, 2026. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the final yield value. This provides a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, would be a major driver. Unexpected inflation data releases, both positive and negative, will also heavily influence expectations. Geopolitical events and shifts in global economic growth forecasts could also impact the 10-year Treasury yield. Finally, any significant changes in the U.S. government's fiscal policy or debt issuance plans could move this market as traders adjust their outlook.