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406,019

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10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?
kalshi

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

Volume:
$17,436

4.74% or above

 - Kalshi

4.74% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.74% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,176
N/A
N/A
$1,334
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.62% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,968
N/A
N/A
$477
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.64% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,963
N/A
N/A
$907
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.7% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,952
N/A
N/A
$893
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.68% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,633
N/A
N/A
$535
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.6% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,367
N/A
N/A
$276
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.66% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$981
N/A
N/A
$478
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.72% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$933
N/A
N/A
$679
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.56% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$932
N/A
N/A
$84
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.58% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$636
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.76% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,029
N/A
N/A
$609
Settled
No
kalshi

4.8% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$465
N/A
N/A
$409
Settled
No
kalshi

4.82% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
kalshi

4.78% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

4.84% or above

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by setting different threshold levels for analysis. Each market assesses whether the yield surpasses a specific benchmark on a set date, offering varied perspectives on future interest rate expectations.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury as of July 31, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, and if the yield exceeds its respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Expiration occurs at the sooner of 7:00 PM ET following the official data release for July 31, 2026, or one week after that date. This structure allows multiple markets to provide granular insight into yield movements around varying levels.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate economic models and policy outlooks, traders in this market price in real-time reactions to news, inflation data, and Federal Reserve signals. This can lead to notable differences — for example, a sudden shift in market sentiment may move odds faster than analyst updates, especially ahead of key economic reports.

This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. By that date, the actual yield level will be recorded and matched against the market’s defined thresholds. The process ensures an objective, transparent resolution based on widely available data, allowing all participants to verify the result independently.

Several signals could shift this market before it resolves, including key Federal Reserve meetings, employment reports, inflation data releases, and major geopolitical developments. Any surprise policy decision or economic shock often causes rapid re-pricing as traders adjust expectations for long-term interest rates. Additionally, shifts in global risk sentiment or major budget announcements may also influence where traders see the yield heading by Jul 31, 2026.