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10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 21, 2026?
kalshi

10Y US Treasury yield on Aug 21, 2026?

Volume:
$14,454

4.55% or above

 - Kalshi

4.55% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 21, 2026

Closed: Aug 21, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.55% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,601
N/A
N/A
$2,601
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.71% or above

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,533
N/A
N/A
$1,377
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.69% or above

View
100%
47%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,517
N/A
N/A
$1,988
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.73% or above

View
100%
74%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,746
N/A
N/A
$956
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.67% or above

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$945
N/A
N/A
$325
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.51% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$425
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.65% or above

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$258
N/A
N/A
$249
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.53% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$249
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.63% or above

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
$122
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.57% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.61% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$121
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.59% or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.75% or above

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,987
N/A
N/A
$925
Settled
No
kalshi

4.79% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$404
N/A
N/A
$155
Settled
No
kalshi

4.77% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$219
N/A
N/A
$219
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

These markets track potential movements in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by setting different threshold levels for a specific future date. Each market evaluates whether the yield surpasses a particular benchmark, offering varied perspectives on future interest rate expectations. The outcomes reflect collective investor sentiment about economic conditions and monetary policy directions.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury exceeds specified threshold levels on August 21, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.50% to 4.78%. If the published yield for that date meets or exceeds the threshold defined for a specific market, it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Expiration occurs at the sooner of two times: either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official release of the yield data for August 21, 2026, or one week after August 21, 2026. All markets share this uniform expiration framework, ensuring consistency across differing yield thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for short_topic on Kalshi tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $5,952. It shows how traders on Kalshi are positioning around the future direction of the 10-year US Treasury yield, with total volume reaching $14,454. This real-time view helps users monitor market sentiment and liquidity trends as the event approaches.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, sentiment-driven view of where yields may head. While analysts may incorporate long-term economic models and policy expectations, traders on Kalshi react quickly to news, Treasury auction results, and shifting Fed rhetoric. This can lead to divergence — for example, markets might price in a steeper curve more aggressively than consensus forecasts, depending on recent data releases.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks based on their expectations for the 10-year yield level at the specified date. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate of all open orders, with implied probabilities adjusting dynamically to trading activity. Volume of $14,454 supports these price discoveries, allowing participants to hedge or speculate on yield movements.

Key events that could shift this market include Federal Reserve policy announcements, major economic data releases such as CPI or GDP figures, Treasury auction results, and geopolitical developments that impact global capital flows. Shifts in investor risk appetite, foreign central bank interventions, and changes in long-term inflation expectations also frequently influence yield pricing. Traders on Kalshi will react in real time to each new catalyst.