TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?
polymarket

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?

Volume:
$6,509

Muse from Meta

 - Polymarket

Muse from Meta - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 2:05 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Muse from Meta

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,910
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ChatGPT

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,734
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Threads

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$328
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google Gemini

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$127
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

APTV

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reserved app 1

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reserved app 2

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reserved app 3

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reserved app 4

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reserved app 5

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the US App Store ranking market tracks the current implied probability of APTV being the #1 free app in the US Apple App Store on October 9. You’ll find the odds reflecting trader sentiment, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $2,707. The overall volume for this market is $6,262, indicating the level of interest from traders on Polymarket.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a very high probability of APTV achieving the top spot. Comparing this to external analyst forecasts and polls regarding app popularity, it’s important to note that prediction markets often aggregate a diverse range of information and expert opinions. While analysts might offer qualitative assessments, this market provides a quantitative measure of belief, reflecting what traders are willing to wager on the outcome. Discrepancies between the market and analyst predictions can highlight differing perspectives or access to unique information.

This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the ranking of apps in the US Apple App Store will be assessed on October 9 to determine whether APTV holds the #1 free app position. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from the Apple App Store, and the market will settle based on that verified ranking. Traders should monitor the App Store directly as Oct 9, 2026 approaches to stay informed.

Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. A major update to APTV with significant new features or bug fixes could increase downloads and user engagement, boosting its chances of reaching the top spot. Conversely, negative press coverage, a competitor launching a highly successful app, or technical issues with APTV could negatively impact its ranking. Any significant news related to APTV’s marketing campaigns or user acquisition strategies could also move this market as traders adjust their expectations before Oct 9, 2026.