TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 21?
polymarket

#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 21?

Volume:
$8,226

DeepSeek

 - Polymarket

DeepSeek - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 28, 3:28 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,173
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$759
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$600
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$526
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$510
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$488
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$482
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$455
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 28, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 28, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 2, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 28, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 28, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 2, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 21 to 27, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI lab market share tracks the probabilities associated with different AI labs having the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21. You can view the current odds for each potential leader, along with the 24-hour volume of $1,044 and the total volume traded of $8,226. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify which labs are currently favored to lead. The dashboard also displays the price history, providing a visual representation of how the market has evolved over time.

Currently, there is limited publicly available data comparing prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for the AI lab market share. However, this market provides a unique perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to forecast which AI lab will dominate OpenRouter’s market share. Unlike traditional polls or expert opinions, the odds on Polymarket reflect real financial stakes, incentivizing participants to provide informed and accurate predictions. It’s a dynamic measure of belief, constantly updated as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief in each AI lab’s likelihood of success. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular lab, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds accurately reflect the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on determining which AI lab holds the highest market share on OpenRouter during the week of September 21. The data used to determine the winner will be sourced from OpenRouter’s official reporting, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the results. Traders should monitor OpenRouter’s announcements for the official market share data release.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from leading AI labs regarding new models, partnerships, or funding rounds could shift investor sentiment. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI research or changes in OpenRouter’s platform could also influence the odds. Furthermore, any news related to the performance or adoption of specific AI labs’ services could trigger substantial trading activity. Monitoring these developments closely will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the AI lab market share.