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410,482

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4,340

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5

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#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 26?
polymarket

#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 26?

Volume:
$14,000

DeepSeek

 - Polymarket

DeepSeek - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 3:04 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,217
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
Yes
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,242
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,314
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$989
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$725
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$684
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$536
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$489
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$476
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$460
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$445
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$423
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

AI lab F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

AI lab G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 once the figures for the week of November 2, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of November 2, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on November 6, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 once the figures for the week of November 2, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of November 2, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on November 6, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI lab market share tracks the probabilities associated with different AI labs holding the largest share of OpenRouter usage the week of October 26. You can view the current odds for each outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $937, indicating how much trading activity this market is experiencing. Overall volume for this market is $14,000.

Currently, this market suggests a very high probability that DeepSeek will have the highest OpenRouter market share. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which predict a more competitive landscape with several labs vying for the top position. However, it's important to remember that analyst predictions are often based on qualitative assessments and long-term projections, while this market reflects the collective, real-time judgment of traders focused on the specific timeframe of the week of October 26. The current odds represent a different perspective on the same underlying question.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which AI lab has the largest share of OpenRouter usage during the week of October 26. The resolution will be based on data publicly released by OpenRouter, establishing which lab processed the most requests through their platform during that period. The outcome will be determined by objective data, not subjective interpretation.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major announcements from leading AI labs regarding new model releases, partnerships, or funding rounds could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance benchmarks or reports on model capabilities could also influence the odds. Furthermore, any news related to OpenRouter's usage patterns or changes to its platform could directly affect which AI lab is favored. Finally, broader developments in the AI industry, such as regulatory changes or shifts in investor focus, could indirectly move this market.