TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of August 31?
polymarket

#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of August 31?

Volume:
$8,030

DeepSeek

 - Polymarket

DeepSeek - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 7, 2026

Closed: Sep 7, 5:32 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,292
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$836
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$799
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$556
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$411
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$331
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$319
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 11, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 7, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 11, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI lab market share tracks the current odds of different AI labs leading in market share, the price history of the market, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $2,001. Users can see how the implied probabilities have shifted over time and gauge market sentiment. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded on this market, which is currently $8,030. This provides a clear picture of how traders are assessing the competitive landscape within the AI industry.

Currently, it's important to note that this market represents the collective prediction of traders on Polymarket. Comparing these odds to external analyst forecasts reveals whether the crowd is more or less optimistic than experts about the leading AI lab. If analysts predict a different outcome than what’s reflected in the current price, it could indicate a valuable opportunity for informed traders. It’s crucial to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on specific models and assumptions, while this market aggregates a wider range of perspectives.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an AI lab will have the largest market share, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will climb. This creates a dynamic pricing system that constantly adjusts based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the leading AI lab's market share is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on publicly available data regarding AI lab revenue, funding, and user base, as assessed by independent sources. The market will settle to 100% for the AI lab determined to have the largest market share at that time, according to these verified sources. Traders should monitor industry news and reports leading up to the resolution date.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from leading AI labs regarding new product launches, significant funding rounds, or key partnerships could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected regulatory changes impacting the AI industry, or breakthroughs in AI technology from a particular lab, could also cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, shifts in overall market conditions or changes in investor confidence within the tech sector could influence trading activity and affect the odds in this market.