TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 8:46 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the outcome of the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election. Markets ask whether specific candidates will win, and also include a 'someone else' option. The election is scheduled for October 28, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The candidate scope differs significantly between platforms. Polymarket includes a comprehensive list plus an 'Other' option, while Kalshi focuses on a limited set of candidates.Hero tip: Consider Polymarket if you believe a candidate not listed on Kalshi has a reasonable chance of winning. Be aware that Kalshi markets will resolve to 'No' for any candidate outside their specified list.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket markets resolve based on the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Winnipeg. Includes a comprehensive list of candidates (A-Z) and an 'Other' option. Resolves to 'Other' if the result isn't known by June 30, 2027.
- Kalshi: Kalshi markets resolve to 'Yes' if Scott Gillingham, Kevin Klein, or Don Woodstock win the election. No 'Other' option is present; any other winner results in a 'No' resolution.
Polymarket
The 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Winnipeg as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Winnipeg.
Kalshi
Each market corresponds to a specific candidate in the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election. If the named candidate wins the election, that particular market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets are eligible for accelerated resolution should a consensus of media outlets declare an official winner before formal certification.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling data. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on an outcome. This can reveal more about true beliefs, as it involves financial risk. Polling averages can be susceptible to biases like social desirability, while the financial incentive in this market encourages more honest predictions. However, both sources of information can be valuable; discrepancies between the two may signal overlooked factors or emerging trends in the Winnipeg mayoral race.