TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket

Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?

Volume:
$3,245

Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 8:01 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,245
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, UPS is estimated to release earnings on October 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for UPS’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.64 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if UPS reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.64 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If UPS releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, UPS is estimated to release earnings on October 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for UPS’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.64 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if UPS reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.64 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If UPS releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the UPS earnings market tracks the current odds of UPS beating quarterly earnings, the price history of shares representing 'yes' or 'no' outcomes, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $151. The total volume traded in this market is $3,245. This allows traders to see how sentiment is shifting and how much capital is backing each possible outcome. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the market's activity, giving participants insights into the collective prediction.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for UPS earnings. While analysts provide estimates based on financial modeling and company reports, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of non-public information by market participants. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming an opinion on whether UPS will beat earnings expectations.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether UPS will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likelihood of a positive earnings report. The current price indicates the market's collective expectation.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether UPS’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate of financial analysts covering the company. The final EPS figure will be sourced from official UPS financial releases and verified against credible public sources. The market will then settle based on this comparison, determining which outcome – 'yes' or 'no' – is the correct one.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding UPS’s shipping volume, particularly during peak seasons, could impact expectations. Changes in macroeconomic conditions, such as fuel prices or overall economic growth, are also relevant. Furthermore, any pre-earnings announcements from UPS management, or analyst revisions to their earnings estimates, could cause a shift in sentiment. Unexpected news about major competitors in the logistics industry could also influence trading activity in this market.