TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event centers on whether the Trump Administration will release documents connected to Jeffrey Epstein before a specific date. These documents must be previously unseen materials created before Trump's presidency. The focus is on any official disclosure of such materials through appropriate channels.
Kalshi
If the Trump Administration has released, after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, previously unreleased (but created prior to the start of his Administration) documents related to or discussing Jeffrey Epstein’s connections, or associates, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data on potential future events. While polls capture stated opinions, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, as betting involves a tangible investment, often leading to more considered predictions. It’s important to note that polls and prediction markets measure different things – one is sentiment, the other is conviction backed by capital. This market provides a continuously updated forecast based on financial incentives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing a 'yes' or 'no' outcome to the question of whether Trump will release more Epstein files in October 2026. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the probability of the event occurring as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s collective belief, and changes in price signal shifts in that belief as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Donald Trump publicly releases additional files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein during the month of October 2026. The release must be documented by major news organizations to be considered valid for the purposes of this market. Any release of files before or after this timeframe will not affect the outcome.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any official statements from Donald Trump regarding the Epstein case or potential file releases would be a major catalyst. Developments in ongoing legal proceedings related to Epstein, or new information coming to light about his associates, could also influence trading activity. Additionally, major news reports investigating the case, or shifts in the political landscape surrounding Trump, could all impact the perceived probability and therefore the price of contracts in this market.
