TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:37 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”). General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify. Text or speech contained in images, memes, or videos posted by Trump on his official social media accounts will qualify if it clearly expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence toward Allah, provided that any additional posted commentary from Trump does not explicitly contradict that sentiment. Media contained only within reposts or posts quoted by Trump will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”). General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify. Text or speech contained in images, memes, or videos posted by Trump on his official social media accounts will qualify if it clearly expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence toward Allah, provided that any additional posted commentary from Trump does not explicitly contradict that sentiment. Media contained only within reposts or posts quoted by Trump will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data on whether former President Trump will praise Allah again. While polls often capture stated opinions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on, potentially revealing underlying beliefs not expressed in surveys. It’s important to note that polls and prediction markets measure different things – stated preference versus actual conviction – and can therefore diverge. This market provides a real-time assessment of perceived probability, which may shift more rapidly than polling averages in response to breaking news or significant events.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of the event occurring; a share priced at 30 means there's a 30% implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined by supply and demand – if more traders believe the event will happen, demand for shares increases, driving up the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a clear and unambiguous instance of former President Trump publicly praising Allah occurs before the specified date. The determination will be based on widely available transcripts, video recordings, or official statements, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment. Any statement or action deemed ambiguous or lacking sufficient clarity will not be considered sufficient for resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any public statements made by former President Trump regarding religion, particularly Islam, would be a key catalyst. Major political events, such as rallies or interviews, could also move the market depending on his comments. Unexpected geopolitical developments or shifts in public discourse surrounding religious tolerance could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any news relating to Trump’s legal challenges or campaign strategy may indirectly affect the perceived likelihood of this event, causing fluctuations in the market price.
