TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Will Trump Mobile release a phone by...?
polymarket

Will Trump Mobile release a phone by...?

Volume:
$47,978

June 30

 - Polymarket

June 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
12.6¢
N/A
$40,055
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks whether Trump Mobile will have a commercially available cellphone on the market by June 30, 2026. Currently on Polymarket, the probability of a phone release by that date stands at 64.0%, while the probability of release by April 30, 2026 is at 0.0%. Resolution will be determined by Trump Mobile's official announcements and credible reporting, with the product requiring general public availability for purchase rather than mere announcements or pre-orders. Watch for Trump Mobile's official product launch timeline and any public statements regarding the T1 or alternative phone models as the June 30, 2026 deadline approaches.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Mobile officially releases a cellphone (including the T1 or any other phone model) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. Announcements, unveilings, reservations, or pre-orders alone will not qualify. Either the T1 or any other phone released under the Trump Mobile brand will qualify. A qualifying cellphone must be a handheld mobile phone; accessories or non-phone devices will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Trump Mobile. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Trump Mobile phone release event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that Trump Mobile will launch a phone by Jun 30, 2026, updated continuously as traders buy and sell shares. Key metrics include the live odds percentage, 24-hour trading volume of $4,493, cumulative event volume of $47,845, and historical price movements. This data helps you monitor market sentiment and liquidity for this technology prediction in real time.

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations and differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on published research and expert opinion. Markets price in real-time information, recent announcements, and supply-chain developments, while analysts often publish periodic reports with longer revision cycles. For the Trump Mobile phone release event, market odds on Polymarket incorporate dynamic sentiment from active traders, whereas analyst consensus may lag behind breaking news or regulatory changes affecting smartphone manufacturing timelines.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, marking the deadline for Trump Mobile to release a phone. Resolution is determined by whether a phone product has been officially announced and made available for purchase or pre-order by that date. The outcome hinges on Trump Mobile's product development timeline, manufacturing partnerships, regulatory approvals, and go-to-market strategy. Any official release before the deadline triggers a yes resolution; failure to launch by that date results in a no outcome.

Key catalysts include official announcements from Trump Mobile regarding product specifications, manufacturing partners, or launch dates. Supply-chain developments, semiconductor availability, and regulatory filings could accelerate or delay timelines. Competitive smartphone releases and market demand signals may influence Trump Mobile's go-to-market strategy. Media coverage, funding announcements, and executive statements about production readiness will likely shift trader sentiment. Any delays in component sourcing or design iterations could push the launch past Jun 30, 2026, moving odds downward.