TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 12:07 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
Donald Trump may publicly support Benjamin Netanyahu's candidacy in Israel's 2026 legislative election. This market determines whether Trump makes a clear public endorsement of Netanyahu's reelection before the specified deadline.
Kalshi
The market resolves Yes if Donald Trump publicly endorses Benjamin Netanyahu in the 2026 Israeli legislative election before the applicable deadline. An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for Netanyahu's election that is public rather than private. The statement must specifically reference the race or be clearly in context of the race, and must come directly from Trump or through his official channels. Positive comments without explicit support, policy endorsements that do not endorse the nominee, or conditional endorsements do not qualify. Social media endorsements count only from verified accounts; likes or retweets alone do not constitute endorsement, though quote tweets with additional supportive commentary do count. Sarcastic statements or those immediately clarified as jokes do not qualify. The market has two separate resolution dates (September 1 and October 28, 2026); it resolves Yes if an endorsement occurs by either deadline.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders can buy ‘Yes’ contracts if they believe Trump will endorse Netanyahu, and sell ‘Yes’ contracts if they believe he won’t. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is driven by supply and demand, with higher demand pushing prices up and lower demand pushing them down, ultimately determining the implied probability of the outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a public statement of endorsement from Donald Trump in support of Benjamin Netanyahu occurs before the specified date. Any clear and unambiguous statement released publicly will be considered an endorsement for the purposes of this market. The outcome will be determined based on publicly available information and verified against credible public sources.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. A major shift in the political landscape in either the United States or Israel, such as a change in leadership or a significant policy announcement, could alter the perceived likelihood of an endorsement. Public statements from either Trump or Netanyahu regarding their relationship or political views would also be influential. Furthermore, any legal developments involving either figure could introduce uncertainty and affect trading activity in this market. Unexpected geopolitical events could also play a role.
