TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.5b
24H VOL:
$88,584,025
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,361,103,189
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,156,797,162
328,564
Markets across
33,078
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,111
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
No change
- Predict
No change - Predict
67.9%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 19
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 23
Aug 24
Aug 25
Aug 26
Vol.
$45.5k
·
Resolves Oct 22, 2026
Time left: 20d:06h:55m
$
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will attend UFC 331, aggregating data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict. The current consensus probability for Trump attending stands at 68.1%, based on the aggregated views from these platforms. Resolution will be determined by official event records and public statements surrounding the UFC 331 event. The key catalyst to watch will be the event day itself, September 19, 2026, which will confirm whether Trump is in attendance.
The UFC 331 event is scheduled for September 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump attends UFC 331. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
On Predict, this market trades at a very high implied probability, reflecting trader confidence in the outcome. That price point often runs ahead of traditional analyst commentary, which may be more cautious or split due to differing access to insider or political intelligence. The gap can widen when public sentiment leans strongly one way, letting you compare crowd-sourced odds against expert assessments for a fuller picture of expectations ahead of Oct 22, 2026.
Price differences arise because each platform draws users from distinct regions and interest groups, creating varied demand patterns. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one venue might attract more politically engaged traders, while another could see heavier betting from combat-sports fans. Those user dynamics can push odds apart even when the underlying question — whether Trump will appear — stays the same. Watching both sides helps you gauge how different communities weigh the same event.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. A confirmed appearance — or lack thereof — from reputable news outlets and official event records will settle the market, ending all trading activity. The exact timing depends on when reliable sources report the result, but the deadline ensures closure shortly after the UFC 331 event concludes.
Any public scheduling update from Trump’s office, commentary from UFC executives, or high-profile media speculation can shift this market. Surprises — like last-minute security concerns or competing political appearances — might also cause rapid re-pricing. Keep an eye on social-media buzz and news cycles; sudden spikes in conversation often precede meaningful odds changes as the Oct 22, 2026 deadline approaches.