TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.5b

24H VOL:

$88,584,025

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,361,103,189

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,156,797,162

328,564

Markets across

33,078

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,111

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Will Trump attend UFC 331?

Will Trump attend UFC 331?

Total volume:
$582,453
Volume 24h:
$6,146
68%
Liquidity:
$213,298
18%
Open interest:
$1,357
231%

No change

 - Predict

No change - Predict

67.9%

-10.1%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$45.5k

·

Resolves Oct 22, 2026

Time left: 20d:06h:55m

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

68%chance
Amount

$

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will attend UFC 331, aggregating data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict. The current consensus probability for Trump attending stands at 68.1%, based on the aggregated views from these platforms. Resolution will be determined by official event records and public statements surrounding the UFC 331 event. The key catalyst to watch will be the event day itself, September 19, 2026, which will confirm whether Trump is in attendance.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental market scope divergence - three distinct events with separate resolution criteriaHero tip: Treat these as three separate markets resolving based on different events. Monitor Federal Reserve announcements for Predict markets, UFC 331 news coverage for Polymarket, and official executive actions for Kalshi.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Resolves based on Federal Reserve interest rate changes after September 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution source: FOMC statement and Federal Reserve official website.
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Donald Trump's physical attendance at UFC 331 on September 19, 2026. Resolution source: Consensus of credible reporting. Event cancellation resolves to No.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on whether Donald Trump takes executive action renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America before October 1, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

The UFC 331 event is scheduled for September 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump attends UFC 331. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

If Donald Trump has taken any executive action renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Trump UFC attendance market aggregates activity across multiple platforms, giving you a live view of how traders price the possibility of Donald Trump showing up at UFC 331. It shows combined volume of $507,173 and recent 24-hour volume of $20,300, alongside current odds. This unified display lets you see consensus expectations and compare positioning between venues, making it easier to spot shifts in market sentiment as the event approaches.

On Predict, this market trades at a very high implied probability, reflecting trader confidence in the outcome. That price point often runs ahead of traditional analyst commentary, which may be more cautious or split due to differing access to insider or political intelligence. The gap can widen when public sentiment leans strongly one way, letting you compare crowd-sourced odds against expert assessments for a fuller picture of expectations ahead of Oct 22, 2026.

Price differences arise because each platform draws users from distinct regions and interest groups, creating varied demand patterns. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one venue might attract more politically engaged traders, while another could see heavier betting from combat-sports fans. Those user dynamics can push odds apart even when the underlying question — whether Trump will appear — stays the same. Watching both sides helps you gauge how different communities weigh the same event.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. A confirmed appearance — or lack thereof — from reputable news outlets and official event records will settle the market, ending all trading activity. The exact timing depends on when reliable sources report the result, but the deadline ensures closure shortly after the UFC 331 event concludes.

Any public scheduling update from Trump’s office, commentary from UFC executives, or high-profile media speculation can shift this market. Surprises — like last-minute security concerns or competing political appearances — might also cause rapid re-pricing. Keep an eye on social-media buzz and news cycles; sudden spikes in conversation often precede meaningful odds changes as the Oct 22, 2026 deadline approaches.