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Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?

Oct 26, 2026, 7:59 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,063
Volume 24h:
$300
19%
Liquidity:
$198
26%
Open interest:
$281N/A

Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

1W

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 17h:38m:49s

Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?

47%chance
Amount

$

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At 68¢ buys you 147 shares | Odds: 47% Total Payout: $147 | Net Profit: $47 Multiplier: 1.47x | ROI: 47% | APY: N/A Low liquidity
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polymarket

Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?

Trade
47%
12%
Yes 68¢No 75¢
43¢
$198
$1,063
39%
N/A
N/A
17h 38m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Toast is estimated to release earnings on November 3, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Toast's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.26 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Toast reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.26 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Toast releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Toast is estimated to release earnings on November 3, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Toast's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.26 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Toast reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.26 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Toast releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Toast earnings market tracks the current odds of whether Toast will beat quarterly earnings expectations. You’ll find a price history showing how the probability has shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $300. The total volume traded in this market is $1,063. This provides a clear picture of how traders are assessing the likelihood of a positive earnings surprise from Toast, and how much activity there is surrounding this prediction.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for Toast's earnings. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges, this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes. If the market price suggests a higher probability of beating earnings than the average analyst expectation, it indicates traders believe analysts are being too conservative. Conversely, a lower probability suggests traders are more skeptical of a positive surprise. It's a real-time assessment of expectations, distinct from static analyst reports.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Toast will beat earnings, and the price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the market’s consensus probability – a higher price means a greater likelihood of Toast exceeding expectations, while a lower price indicates the opposite. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the earnings release date approaches.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether Toast's reported earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus EPS estimate provided by financial data providers at the time of the earnings release. The final price of shares in this market will reflect whether Toast successfully beat earnings expectations, providing a payout to those who correctly predicted the outcome.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any news regarding Toast’s sales performance, changes in key industry trends, or broader economic indicators could influence trader sentiment. Pre-earnings announcements or guidance revisions from Toast management would also be major catalysts. Unexpected news about competitors in the restaurant technology space could also shift expectations. Monitoring these signals and events will be crucial for understanding how the market may evolve as the earnings release date approaches.