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Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 13?
- Polymarket
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 13? - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 28, 2026
Closed: Oct 14, 9:31 AM EST
Polymarket
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 13?
Description
A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the White House Press Office calls a full lid for the specified date by 6:30 PM ET on that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. A qualifying full lid may be reported by the resolution sources through 11:59 PM ET on the following day, provided the source indicates that it was called by the 6:30 PM ET cutoff. This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).
Polymarket
A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the White House Press Office calls a full lid for the specified date by 6:30 PM ET on that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. A qualifying full lid may be reported by the resolution sources through 11:59 PM ET on the following day, provided the source indicates that it was called by the 6:30 PM ET cutoff. This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market participants heavily favor the White House calling a full lid by the specified time. This contrasts with typical polling data, which often focuses on broader political approval or future election outcomes. While polls capture public opinion, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen regarding the President’s schedule. The difference highlights that prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting, while polls measure stated preferences. It’s important to remember that this market focuses on a very specific event, unlike the broader scope of most polls.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the White House officially announces a 'full lid' before 6:30 PM on October 13. The announcement must be publicly available and verifiable to determine the outcome of this market. The resolution process relies on publicly available information to ensure a transparent and objective determination of whether the condition has been met.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Unexpected changes to the President’s schedule, such as the addition of a last-minute event, would likely decrease the probability of a full lid being called. Conversely, a quiet day with no planned activities would increase confidence and potentially drive the price higher. Any official communication from the White House regarding the President’s schedule, or even rumors of changes, could also significantly move this market. Monitoring news feeds and official White House announcements is crucial for understanding potential catalysts.
