TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 5:21 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the White House Press Office calls a full lid for the specified date by 6:30 PM ET on that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. A qualifying full lid may be reported by the resolution sources through 11:59 PM ET on the following day, provided the source indicates that it was called by the 6:30 PM ET cutoff. This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).
Polymarket
A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the White House Press Office calls a full lid for the specified date by 6:30 PM ET on that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. A qualifying full lid may be reported by the resolution sources through 11:59 PM ET on the following day, provided the source indicates that it was called by the 6:30 PM ET cutoff. This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data regarding the likelihood of a White House lid call. While polls often gauge public opinion or expectations, this market reflects what individuals are willing to wager on the actual outcome. This difference arises because prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting through financial reward, whereas polls can be subject to biases or inaccuracies in sampling and response. It’s important to note that this market is focused solely on the timing of a White House communication, not broader political sentiment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the White House will call a lid by 6:30 PM. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of a lid call, with higher prices suggesting a greater perceived likelihood. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and evolving expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the White House issues an official notification to the press corps – commonly referred to as a 'lid' – before 6:30 PM during the specified timeframe of October 5th to October 10th. The determination will be based on publicly available records of White House press communications and official schedules, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected schedule changes for the President or key White House officials could increase the probability of a lid call. Major breaking news events, particularly those requiring immediate White House response, could also shift the odds. Conversely, a busy schedule with planned public appearances would likely decrease the likelihood of a lid. Monitoring the President’s daily agenda and any unforeseen circumstances impacting White House operations will be crucial for understanding potential movements in this market.
