TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 11:56 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event concerns whether the United Kingdom will implement tax-policy measures initially announced in the Budget presented on October 28, 2026, that increase tax receipts compared to the baseline forecasts. It focuses on the combined impact of these measures over the full forecast period. The outcome depends on HM Treasury's final assessment before October 29, 2026.
Kalshi
If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces tax-policy measures first officially announced in the Budget presented on October 28, 2026 whose combined effect increases UK tax receipts relative to the pre-Budget baseline across the full forecast period in HM Treasury's final Budget policy-decisions scorecard before Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the Chancellor of the Exchequer announces a net increase in taxes as part of the October UK Budget. This includes changes to income tax, VAT, corporation tax, and other levies. The outcome will be determined by analysis of official government documents and statements released during and after the Budget presentation.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth, could influence the government's fiscal policy decisions. Political statements from key figures within the Treasury or the opposition parties could also shift expectations. Unexpected global events, like a recession or geopolitical instability, might force a re-evaluation of the UK’s financial outlook. Any indication of a change in the government's stance on taxation, or leaks regarding the contents of the October Budget, would likely cause movement in this market.
