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Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

Mar 2, 2026, 6:12 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$3,422
Volume 24h:
$201
28%
Liquidity:
$25,885
27%
Open interest:
$761N/A

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

 - Polymarket

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass? - Polymarket

1W

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:10h:22m

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

36%chance
Amount

$

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At 37¢ buys you 270 shares | Odds: 36% Total Payout: $270 | Net Profit: $170 Multiplier: 2.70x | ROI: 170% APY not meaningful
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24h
7d
Open Interest
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polymarket

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

Trade
36%
4%
Yes 37¢No 66¢
3¢
$25,885
$3,422
6%
18%
N/A
1d 10h 22m
Active
Total markets: 1

Intro

This market tracks whether Missouri voters will approve Amendment 3 in the November 2026 midterm elections, a constitutional amendment that would repeal reproductive freedom protections, restrict abortion access, and prohibit gender transition procedures for minors. On Polymarket, the probability of passage stands at 24.0%. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Missouri Secretary of State following the November 3, 2026 vote, with the outcome finalized by December 31, 2027. Watch the amendment's ballot language finalization and early polling trends leading up to the November 2026 midterm elections to gauge voter sentiment on this contentious measure.

Polymarket

Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Missouri abortion ban market displays the current odds of the ban passing, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $163, and the total volume traded to date, which is $3,419. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the potential passage of this legislation. The top outcome currently has a chance of 35.5%.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data on the Missouri abortion ban. While polls attempt to gauge public opinion at a specific moment, this market reflects what individuals are willing to risk capital on. This can reveal a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes, factoring in not just stated preferences but also informed speculation about political dynamics and legislative strategy. Discrepancies between polls and this market can highlight differing levels of confidence in various scenarios.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether the Missouri abortion ban will pass. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket, and is influenced by news events, political analysis, and any new information that impacts the likelihood of the ban’s passage.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether the Missouri legislature successfully passes and enacts the proposed ban on abortion and sex change procedures for minors. The market will settle to 100 if the ban passes into law, and to 0 if it does not. Any amendments or legal challenges that significantly alter the scope of the ban will be considered in determining the final outcome.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Key legislative votes in the Missouri House and Senate will be major catalysts, as will any statements from the Governor regarding their stance on the bill. Court challenges to similar bans in other states could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected political developments, such as shifts in party leadership or major public protests, could also move the market. Finally, any new data or reports regarding public opinion on the issue could also affect trading activity in this market.