TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

Total volume:
$248,687
Volume 24h:
$11,764
149%
Liquidity:
$4,220
25%
Open interest:
$81,607
6%

Above 7.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 7.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 15, 2027

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 91¢ buys you 110 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $110 | Net Profit: $10 Multiplier: 1.10x | ROI: 10% | APY: 55% 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 7.4%

Trade
88%
4%
Yes 91¢No 15¢
6¢
N/A
$5,709
9%
33%
$4,525
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

↑ 7.50%

Trade
73%
1%
Yes 73¢No 28¢
1¢
$870
$1,248
0%
48%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
kalshi

Above 7.5%

Trade
60%
Yes 65¢No 38¢
3¢
N/A
$3,416
27%
35%
$2,797
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
63.3%
Yes 69¢No 33¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Above 7.6%

Trade
44%
Yes 44¢No 63¢
7¢
N/A
$1,230
32%
73%
$1,025
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 7.7%

Trade
16%
Yes 23¢No 84¢
7¢
N/A
$1,818
58%
60%
$1,265
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 7.8%

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 92¢
7¢
N/A
$282
243%
248%
$282
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

↓ 6.50%

Trade
13%
Yes 15¢No 90¢
5¢
$366
$11,160
0%
3%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
kalshi

Above 7.9%

Trade
9%
Yes 10¢No 93¢
3¢
N/A
$1,080
11%
16%
$1,053
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 8.0%

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
N/A
$1,183
2%
2%
$1,183
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

↓ 6.25%

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 9¢No 95¢
4¢
$232
$1,732
0%
6%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

↓ 6.00%

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
$648
$4,047
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

↓ 5.50%

Trade
3%
Yes 4.7¢No 98.3¢
3¢
$361
$2,873
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

↓ 5.90%

Trade
3%
Yes 5.2¢No 99.2¢
4.4¢
$376
$11,617
0%
0.3%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

↓ 5.70%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.2¢
1.2¢
$1,367
$12,220
0%
0.73%
N/A
3mo 2d
active
polymarket

↑ 6.30%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29,440
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.0%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,427
N/A
N/A
$7,112
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
polymarket

↑ 7.00%

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,987
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Above 6.9%

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,990
N/A
N/A
$12,041
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
kalshi

Above 6.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,092
N/A
N/A
$1,523
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Above 6.8%

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,854
N/A
N/A
$3,203
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
kalshi

Above 6.7%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,758
N/A
N/A
$2,321
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.3%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,229
N/A
N/A
$4,830
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
polymarket

↑ 6.50%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,890
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
Yes
polymarket

↑ 6.75%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,460
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 2d
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,686
N/A
N/A
$3,909
2mo 2w 4d
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 33

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaching or exceeding 7.1% at any point during 2026. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket gives a 99.0% probability to this outcome, with resolution determined by the weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey data. The markets ask whether the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will reach or exceed specified levels by December 31, 2026. Keep an eye on the Freddie Mac survey release on January 15, 2027, which will indicate whether the rate was above 7.1% during any week of 2026 and finalize market settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket requires the rate to be hit in any single week, while Kalshi simply checks if it's above a threshold *anytime* in 2026. Kalshi also lists multiple thresholds, creating SKU risk.Hero tip: Focus on Polymarket markets closest to current rates, as they are more sensitive. Be aware of the SKU risk inherent in Kalshi's multiple threshold markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or above the listed rate for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Source: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the 30-Yr FRM is above a specified rate in 2026. Multiple thresholds are listed (6.2%, 6.3%, 6.4%, 6.5%, 6.6%, 6.7%, 6.8%, 6.9%, 7.0%, 7.1%, 7.2%, 7.3%, 7.4%, 7.5%).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (30-Yr FRM) exceeds the specified threshold at any point during 2026, based on Freddie Mac U.S. weekly averages from the Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The thresholds tracked are 6.5%, 6.6%, 6.7%, 6.8%, 6.9%, and 7.0%. If rates reach a higher threshold, all lower thresholds are also satisfied.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' perspective, potentially offering a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and reports, this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time sentiment. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the inclusion of factors not typically considered in standard analyses. Examining both prediction market probabilities and expert opinions provides a more nuanced understanding of potential future movements in the 30-year mortgage rate. The current implied probability in this market may differ from consensus estimates.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a unique set of participants with differing risk appetites and information sets, leading to potentially different interpretations of the same economic data. Additionally, trading volume and the availability of counterparties can influence price discovery on each venue. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.50% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026? at 72.5%, while Kalshi leans toward How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year? at 88.0%, highlighting these differing perspectives.

This market resolves around Jan 15, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as reported by a widely recognized source, such as Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The specific rate at the time of resolution will determine whether the market settles in favor of a rate exceeding or remaining below the specified level. Traders should monitor economic indicators and mortgage rate trends leading up to this date.

Several key economic signals could significantly impact this market. Changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve policy announcements regarding interest rates, and unexpected shifts in the bond market are all potential catalysts. Stronger-than-expected economic growth could put upward pressure on mortgage rates, while a recessionary environment might lead to declines. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions can also play a role. Monitoring these factors and their potential impact on the 30-year mortgage rate is crucial for understanding movements in this market.