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412,077

Markets across

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Will Tesla (TSLA) close above ___ end of October?
polymarket

Will Tesla close above its price by October 30, 2026?

Volume:
$8,216

$380

 - Polymarket

$380 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 4:58 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$380

View
100%
35%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,636
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$390

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,525
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$350

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,042
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$360

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$945
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$310

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$320

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$179
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$330

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$370

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$1,610
$73
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$340

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$1,776
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$400

View
0%
63%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$185
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$430

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$410

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$420

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Tesla stock price market tracks the current implied probability of Tesla (TSLA) closing above a specified price by the end of October. You'll find a dynamic price representing the consensus view of traders, along with the total volume traded – currently $8,216 – and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $3,041. The dashboard also displays the highest and lowest prices traded within a given timeframe, providing a visual representation of market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific outcome.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for Tesla. While some analysts maintain a bullish outlook, anticipating continued growth and a higher stock price, this market incorporates the collective wisdom of traders who are actively putting capital at risk. This often leads to a more nuanced and potentially more accurate assessment of the likelihood of Tesla achieving its goals. The difference in viewpoints highlights the value of considering diverse sources of information when evaluating potential investment outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Tesla's stock will close above the target price. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the event will occur, the higher the share price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market constantly adjusts to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Tesla (TSLA) stock on the final trading day of October will be assessed against the predetermined target price. If the stock closes above that price, the market will resolve positively; otherwise, it will resolve negatively. The resolution will be based on official exchange data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Oct 30, 2026. Major announcements from Tesla regarding production numbers, new product launches, or financial performance would undoubtedly impact trader sentiment. Broader economic trends, such as interest rate changes or shifts in the automotive industry, could also play a role. Unexpected news events, like regulatory changes or significant competitor actions, are additional catalysts to watch. Any developments that alter the perceived growth trajectory of Tesla could lead to substantial shifts in the price of shares within this market.