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Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
polymarket

Will ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

Volume:
$1,804,778

40+

 - Polymarket

40+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 7, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 11:46 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

40+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$349,496
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

30+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$525,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$288,057
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$254,672
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$140,718
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$130,351
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$116,478
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether 30 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, according to Polymarket using IMF Portwatch as the resolution source. The current probability for the leading outcome is 70.0%, while the second outcome stands at 10.0%. Watch for the market to resolve following the release and finalization of IMF Portwatch data on July 31, 2026.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Strait of Hormuz shipping market displays real-time odds on whether a specified number of vessels will transit this critical chokepoint on any single day by the end of July 2026. Traders buy and sell shares that reflect their conviction about daily shipping volume through the waterway. The interface shows current market prices, historical price movements, and trading activity. This market aggregates the collective forecast of participants betting on one of the world's most strategically important maritime passages, where roughly one-third of global seaborne oil passes daily.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks operate on fundamentally different principles. Sportsbooks set fixed odds and manage risk through bookmaking; prediction markets allow traders to set prices dynamically through supply and demand. In this market, odds reflect real-time consensus among participants about shipping volumes in the Strait of Hormuz—a geopolitical and economic indicator rather than a sporting event. Prediction market prices often incorporate breaking news and expert analysis faster than traditional forecasting methods, making them useful for tracking evolving expectations about maritime chokepoint activity.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on order flow and liquidity. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Shares representing each outcome trade between 0 and 1 USD, with the price reflecting the implied probability that the specified number of ships will transit on any day by July 31, 2026. As new information emerges—geopolitical tensions, sanctions, weather, or shipping reports—traders adjust positions, moving the market price. The current odds reflect the aggregate belief of all active participants in this particular venue.

This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether the specified vessel count transits the Strait of Hormuz on any single day before the deadline. Traders should monitor shipping data, maritime tracking services, and geopolitical developments that could affect transit volumes. The final determination will be based on observable, independently verifiable shipping records from that period.

Several catalysts could shift odds significantly. Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, new sanctions regimes, or military incidents would likely reduce expected transits and move the market lower. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or easing tensions could boost shipping confidence. Oil price swings affect demand for crude shipments through the strait. Weather disruptions, port closures, or changes in global trade patterns also influence daily vessel counts. Real-time shipping data releases and analyst commentary on regional stability will provide continuous signals that traders incorporate into their positions throughout the betting period.