TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 6:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event centers on whether a specific individual will vacate their position as an at-large representative on a local governing body prior to a defined date in 2026. It tracks the tenure of this representative and the timing of any potential departure from office. The focus is on changes in membership of the governing council before the specified deadline.
Kalshi
If Robert White leaves as At-Large Member of the Council of the District of Columbia before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts regarding Robert White’s potential departure from the D.C. Council. Traditional political analysis often relies on qualitative assessments and polling data, while this market represents a quantitative, real-time assessment of probabilities based on traders’ collective judgment. If analysts were to predict a high likelihood of White leaving, we would expect to see the 'yes' outcome gain traction and its price increase in this market. Conversely, a consensus among analysts that he will remain would likely push the 'no' outcome's price higher.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing the 'yes' and 'no' outcomes at prices determined by supply and demand. The price of a 'yes' contract reflects the probability of Robert White leaving the D.C. Council before Election Day, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, these prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of this event occurring. The market’s price reflects the aggregated wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Robert White has officially resigned from or otherwise left his position on the D.C. Council before Election Day. The outcome will be based on publicly available information, such as official announcements from the D.C. Council or credible news sources. The market will then settle, and traders will receive payouts based on the final outcome and their positions.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any official announcement from Robert White regarding his future plans, or a credible report of his consideration of leaving the D.C. Council, would likely cause a substantial shift in prices. Political developments within the D.C. Council, such as internal conflicts or changes in leadership, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected legal challenges or personal circumstances involving White could also impact the market. Finally, major news coverage focusing on his potential departure could drive increased trading volume and price movement in this market.
