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Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
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polymarket

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

May 27, 2026, 11:22 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$15,458
Volume 24h:
$371
47%
Liquidity:
$288
55%
Open interest:
$6,558N/A

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

 - Polymarket

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? - Polymarket

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Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:05h:43m

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

49%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 61¢ buys you 164 shares | Odds: 49% Total Payout: $164 | Net Profit: $64 Multiplier: 1.64x | ROI: 64% APY not meaningful Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
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polymarket

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

Trade
49%
5%
Yes 61¢No 64¢
25¢
$288
$15,458
2%
56%
N/A
1d 5h 43m
Active
Total markets: 1

Intro

This market tracks whether Republicans will win at least one Senate or gubernatorial race in 2026 across the six states that Trump flipped from 2020 to 2024: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. On Polymarket, the probability of a Republican victory in at least one of these contests stands at 91.0%. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Federal Election Commission or state election authorities following the November 2026 midterm elections. Watch the 2026 midterm election results on November 3, 2026, when all Senate and gubernatorial races in these swing states will be conclusively called.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the winner, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards any party. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 2024 Senate and Governor races tracks the probability of Republicans winning at least one Senate or Governor's election in a state that both President Biden and former President Trump won in the 2020 election. You can view the current odds, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $371. The total volume traded on this market to date is $15,458. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions evolve over time as new information becomes available.

Currently, this market suggests a 48.5% chance of Republicans winning at least one targeted Senate or Governor's race. This contrasts with typical polling averages, which often focus on individual races and may not fully capture the combined probability of success across multiple states. It's important to remember that polls represent a snapshot in time, while this market reflects a continuous assessment of probabilities based on a wide range of information and perspectives. The market can incorporate factors that polls may miss, such as candidate fundraising, campaign strategy shifts, and emerging political narratives.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe Republicans will win, the higher the share price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and collective intelligence of the traders.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the results of the 2024 Senate and Governor's elections are verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether Republicans secure a win in any Senate or Governor’s race within states that were carried by both President Biden and former President Trump in the 2020 presidential election. The resolution will be based on official election results as reported by relevant election authorities.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major economic news, shifts in presidential approval ratings, and significant developments in key Senate and Governor's races could all cause the odds to fluctuate. Unexpected candidate endorsements, controversies, or changes in campaign finance could also move the market. Polling data released in the lead-up to the election will be closely watched, as will any major political events or debates. Any news that alters perceptions of Republican strength in these targeted states has the potential to influence trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.