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Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?
- Polymarket
Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Time left: 02d:03h:12m
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As of market creation, Qualcomm is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Qualcomm’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.20 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Qualcomm reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.20 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Qualcomm releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Qualcomm is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Qualcomm’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.20 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Qualcomm reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.20 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Qualcomm releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Currently, the implied probability of Qualcomm beating quarterly earnings, as reflected in this market, is 45.5%. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which often present a range of estimates and recommendations. While analysts may provide price targets and ratings, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk based on their own research and insights. It’s a real-time assessment of the likelihood of a positive earnings surprise, distinct from the more static views of financial analysts.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Qualcomm will beat earnings. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to the event. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price effectively represents the cost to take a position on the outcome, and changes in price signal shifts in market sentiment. Higher demand for shares indicating a beat will drive up the price, while increased selling pressure will lower it.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Qualcomm’s reported earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate of financial analysts covering the company. The official earnings release from Qualcomm will serve as the primary source for determining the final result of this market. Traders will be able to see the outcome reflected in the market’s settlement data after the resolution date.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Any news related to Qualcomm’s product pipeline, such as announcements about new chip designs or partnerships, could influence trader sentiment. Macroeconomic factors, like changes in global smartphone demand or broader economic conditions, are also relevant. Furthermore, any revisions to analyst estimates for Qualcomm’s earnings, or unexpected news regarding competitors like Apple or Samsung, could cause shifts in the price of shares within this market. Keep an eye on these signals as the resolution date approaches.