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Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket

Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?

Volume:
$1,643

Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 6:32 PM EST

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Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?

View
100%
77%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$3,800
$1,643
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, O'Reilly is estimated to release earnings on October 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for O'Reilly's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.95 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if O'Reilly reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.95 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If O'Reilly releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, O'Reilly is estimated to release earnings on October 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for O'Reilly's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.95 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if O'Reilly reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.95 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If O'Reilly releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the O'Reilly earnings market tracks the current odds of O'Reilly beating quarterly earnings expectations, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $338. The total volume for this market is $1,643. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of a positive earnings report from O'Reilly, offering insights beyond traditional analyst predictions.

Currently, the implied probability of O'Reilly beating earnings, as reflected by this market, may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges for earnings per share, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, representing a broader range of perspectives and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of available information, varying risk appetites, or the inclusion of non-public information by market participants. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether O'Reilly will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price movements, creating a dynamic and responsive indicator of market sentiment. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether O'Reilly’s reported quarterly earnings per share exceed the consensus estimate of financial analysts at the time of the earnings release. The official earnings report from O'Reilly will serve as the definitive source for determining whether the market resolves in favor of a beat or not. Traders should monitor financial news sources for the official announcement.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news related to O'Reilly’s business performance, such as pre-earnings announcements, changes in guidance, or major contract wins or losses, would likely impact trading activity. Broader economic indicators, like overall market sentiment or industry-specific trends, could also play a role. Unexpected news about key competitors or significant shifts in consumer behavior could also influence traders’ perceptions and, consequently, the price of shares in this market.