TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 11:06 PM EST
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting NVIDIA (NVDA), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which NVIDIA (NVDA) trades governs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting NVIDIA (NVDA), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which NVIDIA (NVDA) trades governs.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts for NVIDIA. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing predictions as probabilities. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can react more quickly to new information and incorporate a wider range of perspectives than typical analyst reports. This market offers a real-time view of what traders believe, potentially diverging from standard financial analysis.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe NVIDIA will finish the week above the target price, the higher the contract price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants, constantly adjusting to new information and trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of NVIDIA (NVDA) stock on the final trading day of the week of October 5 will be compared to the market’s target price. The market will settle based on this publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders will then receive payouts based on their positions in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major news regarding NVIDIA’s earnings, product announcements (especially around AI chips), or changes in broader market conditions affecting the technology sector could all cause shifts in predictions. Unexpected economic data releases, geopolitical events, or even influential analyst upgrades or downgrades could also move the market. Any information perceived as impacting NVIDIA's future performance has the potential to alter trader sentiment and, consequently, the price action in this market.