TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 11:09 PM EST
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting NVIDIA (NVDA), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which NVIDIA (NVDA) trades governs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting NVIDIA (NVDA), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which NVIDIA (NVDA) trades governs.
Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Opinion offers a unique perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts for NVIDIA. While analysts often provide price targets and ratings based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects what traders are willing to bet on, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies between the prediction market and analyst opinions can highlight areas of disagreement or differing expectations regarding the stock's future performance, providing a more nuanced view than either source alone.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether NVIDIA stock will finish the week of October 12 above the specified price. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as events unfold, making it a responsive indicator of sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of NVIDIA (NVDA) stock on the Friday of the week of October 12 will be checked against the market’s threshold. If the closing price is above that level, the ‘yes’ side of this market will win; otherwise, the ‘no’ side will prevail. The resolution will be based on official exchange data and widely available financial news sources.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major announcements from NVIDIA regarding earnings, new product launches, or changes in guidance would undoubtedly impact trader sentiment. Broader market trends, such as overall economic data releases or shifts in investor risk appetite, could also play a role. Unexpected news related to key competitors or disruptions in the semiconductor supply chain could also influence the price of NVIDIA stock and, consequently, the odds in this market. Any significant news flow related to AI development or regulatory changes could also be a catalyst.