Name: Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?
Start: 2026-02-11T17:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-11-03T15:00:00.000Z

Question 1

What does the Neal Dunn resignation market dashboard track?

Accepted Answer

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Neal Dunn resignation market tracks the current odds of Representative Dunn leaving Congress before the midterms, along with a price history showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $23,639. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to this specific event. The top outcome, as indicated by the current price, has a chance of 0.3%.

Question 2

How do prediction market odds compare to polling averages?

Accepted Answer

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a relatively low probability of Representative Dunn leaving Congress before the midterms. This contrasts with general polling data regarding his approval ratings and the political climate in his district, which do not necessarily indicate an imminent resignation. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect not just the likelihood of an event, but also the collective wisdom and information of traders, potentially incorporating factors not captured in standard polls. This market offers a different perspective than traditional political analysis.

Question 3

How is this market priced on Kalshi?

Accepted Answer

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of Representative Dunn’s resignation. The price of a contract reflects the market’s consensus view of that probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with increased buying pressure driving the price up and increased selling pressure driving it down. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own assessments of the situation, creating a dynamic and informative price signal.

Question 4

When does this market resolve, and what determines the outcome?

Accepted Answer

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Representative Neal Dunn officially resigns from his position in the House of Representatives before the stated date. Any announcement of resignation, accepted by the House, will trigger resolution. The outcome will be based on publicly available information and verified against credible public sources, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the market’s result.

Question 5

What signals or events could move this market between now and resolution?

Accepted Answer

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. A major shift in Representative Dunn’s public statements regarding his future plans, or any indication of health concerns, could drive the odds higher. Unexpected developments in legal or ethical investigations involving him could also move the market. Furthermore, changes in the political landscape, such as a significant shift in the balance of power in Congress, could influence trader sentiment. Any credible news reports or official announcements related to these factors would likely trigger substantial trading activity in this market.

Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?