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Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of October?
polymarket

Will Microsoft close above the price by October 30, 2026?

Volume:
$8,717

$450

 - Polymarket

$450 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 5:09 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$450

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$465

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$330
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$435

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$480

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$495

View
100%
44%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$1,443
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$510

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$600

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,245
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$525

View
0%
56%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,479
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$615

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$976
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$585

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$618
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$570

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$252
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$555

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$540

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Microsoft stock price market tracks the current implied probability of Microsoft (MSFT) closing above a specified price by the end of October. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the outcome over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $2,953. Total volume for this market is $8,717. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to the future performance of Microsoft stock.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding Microsoft’s stock performance. While some analysts predict continued growth based on cloud computing and AI advancements, this market incorporates a broader range of perspectives and potential risks, as expressed by traders. The collective wisdom of the crowd often differs from individual expert opinions, and this market provides a unique signal based on the aggregated beliefs of those willing to put capital behind their predictions. It’s a fascinating comparison to see how market-based forecasts evolve alongside expert analysis.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Microsoft will close above the target price. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news events, earnings reports, and overall market sentiment. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price fluctuations that provide a real-time assessment of the potential outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the closing price of Microsoft (MSFT) stock on the final trading day of October is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official closing price reported by a major financial exchange. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the verified outcome. The market’s resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a transparent and objective determination of the result.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Microsoft regarding earnings, new product launches (particularly in AI), or significant changes in their cloud computing business could all cause price swings. Broader economic factors, such as interest rate changes or shifts in the overall stock market, could also play a role. Unexpected news regarding competition from other tech giants, or regulatory developments impacting Microsoft, are additional catalysts to watch. Any information that alters the perceived future prospects of Microsoft stock has the potential to move this market.