TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:39 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MU%2FUSD.
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects a consensus view on Micron’s potential stock performance. While traditional analyst reports offer individual assessments, this market aggregates the predictions of numerous traders, potentially providing a more diverse and real-time perspective. It's important to note that analysts may have differing methodologies and biases, whereas this market is driven by individuals putting their capital at risk based on their beliefs about the future price of Micron stock.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Micron (MU) will finish the week of October 26 above a specified price. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will be above the threshold, the higher the share price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market odds reflect the most up-to-date collective forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Micron (MU) stock on the Friday of the week of October 26 will be used to determine whether the market resolves in favor of the 'above' outcome. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the verified result of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major news regarding Micron’s earnings, new product announcements, or significant changes in the semiconductor industry could all impact investor sentiment and, consequently, the price of Micron stock. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate changes or shifts in global economic growth, could also play a role. Unexpected news regarding key competitors or supply chain disruptions within the chip manufacturing sector are further catalysts that could influence trading activity in this market.