TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 11:09 PM EST
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Micron (MU) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Micron (MU) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Micron (MU), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Micron (MU) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Micron (MU) trades governs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Micron (MU) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Micron (MU) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Micron (MU), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Micron (MU) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Micron (MU) trades governs.
Currently, the collective wisdom of traders participating in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates diverse opinions into a probability distribution. This allows for a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in financial markets. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probability and analyst ratings can highlight areas where traders believe analysts may be over- or underestimating the likelihood of Micron’s stock performance.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Micron’s stock will finish the week of October 12 above the specified price. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of participants. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the event occurring, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of a positive outcome for Micron’s stock.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Micron (MU) stock on the Friday of the week of October 12 will be compared to the market’s target price. The resolution will be based on official data sources and will reflect the established market conditions at the time. This provides a clear and objective determination of whether the market’s prediction was accurate.
Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Oct 16, 2026. Major announcements from Micron regarding earnings, product releases, or strategic partnerships would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader macroeconomic news, such as interest rate decisions or shifts in the semiconductor industry outlook, could also play a role. Unexpected news related to key competitors or changes in analyst ratings for Micron’s stock could further drive movement in this market as traders adjust their positions based on new information.