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Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?

Oct 26, 2026, 8:02 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$1,553
Volume 24h:
$227N/A
Liquidity:
$332
57%
Open interest:
$511N/A

Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:14h:56m

Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?

49%chance
Amount

$

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At 60¢ buys you 167 shares | Odds: 49% Total Payout: $167 | Net Profit: $67 Multiplier: 1.67x | ROI: 67% APY not meaningful Low liquidity
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7d
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polymarket

Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?

Trade
49%
12%
Yes 60¢No 62¢
22¢
$332
$1,553
17%
N/A
N/A
1d 14h 56m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, McDonald's is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for McDonald's’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.42 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald's reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.42 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If McDonald's releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, McDonald's is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for McDonald's’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.42 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald's reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.42 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If McDonald's releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the McDonald's earnings market tracks the current odds of whether McDonald's will beat quarterly earnings expectations. You can view the probability of the 'Yes' outcome, as indicated by the price, along with a history of how those odds have changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $227, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,553. This provides a clear picture of market activity and sentiment surrounding McDonald's upcoming earnings report.

Currently, the implied probability of McDonald's beating quarterly earnings, as reflected in this market, is around 49.0%. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on financial modeling and company guidance. While analysts also predict whether earnings will exceed expectations, their methods and resulting probabilities can vary significantly. It's common to see discrepancies between prediction market prices and analyst consensus, as this market incorporates a wider range of information and the collective wisdom of many traders.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders can buy 'Yes' shares if they believe McDonald's will beat earnings and sell 'Yes' shares if they believe it won't. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the market's aggregate assessment of the likelihood of a positive earnings surprise, influenced by news, financial reports, and overall market sentiment. The more traders bet on a 'Yes' outcome, the higher the price will climb.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether McDonald's reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate of financial analysts covering the company. The specific EPS figure used for comparison will be sourced from publicly available financial news and data providers. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Polymarket following the official earnings release.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any news related to McDonald's sales figures, particularly same-store sales growth, would be closely watched. Changes in consumer spending patterns, especially within the fast-food industry, could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, broader economic indicators, such as inflation rates and unemployment figures, might affect expectations for McDonald's earnings. Finally, any unexpected announcements from McDonald's management regarding their outlook for the quarter could lead to substantial price movements in this market.