Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?
Start: 2026-10-26T23:57:12.000Z
End: 2026-11-02T14:00:00.000Z

Description

As of market creation, Marriott is estimated to release earnings on November 2, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Marriott’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.87 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marriott reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.87 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Marriott releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Marriott is estimated to release earnings on November 2, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Marriott’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.87 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marriott reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.87 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Marriott releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Marriott earnings market tracks the current odds of Marriott beating quarterly earnings, represented as a percentage chance. It also displays the 24-hour trading volume, giving you a sense of how actively this market is being traded. You can view the price history to understand how sentiment has shifted over time. Currently, the volume is $268 and the total volume is $485. This information allows you to assess market confidence and potential trading opportunities within the Marriott earnings market.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Marriott will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the information available. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a share that pays out if Marriott exceeds expectations, and that price is constantly updated based on supply and demand.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Marriott’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate of financial analysts covering the company. The official earnings report released by Marriott will serve as the definitive source for determining whether the market resolves in favor of Marriott beating expectations or not. Traders should monitor financial news sources for the official earnings release date.

Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news related to Marriott’s performance, such as pre-earnings announcements, changes in hotel occupancy rates, or updates on travel trends, could significantly shift trader sentiment. Broader economic indicators, like GDP growth or consumer spending data, could also play a role, as they impact the overall demand for Marriott’s services. Unexpected events, such as major disruptions to the travel industry, could also cause substantial movement in this market. Keep an eye on financial news and industry reports for potential catalysts.

Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?

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