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Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?

Oct 26, 2026, 7:59 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$1,930
Volume 24h:
$1,251
8,497%
Liquidity:
$376
38%
Open interest:
$1,138N/A

Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

1W

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 14h:35m:38s

Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?

91%chance
Amount

$

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At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 91% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% APY not meaningful Low liquidity
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polymarket

Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?

Trade
91%
16%
Yes 97¢No 15¢
12¢
$376
$1,930
184%
N/A
N/A
14h 35m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Marathon Petroleum is estimated to release earnings on November 3, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Marathon Petroleum's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $24.57 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marathon Petroleum reports GAAP EPS greater than $24.57 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Marathon Petroleum releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Marathon Petroleum is estimated to release earnings on November 3, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Marathon Petroleum's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $24.57 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marathon Petroleum reports GAAP EPS greater than $24.57 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Marathon Petroleum releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the MPC earnings market tracks the current odds of Marathon Petroleum beating quarterly earnings expectations, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,251, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,930. This provides a clear view of market sentiment and activity surrounding MPC’s upcoming earnings release. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity on Polymarket.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for MPC’s earnings. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges, this market represents the collective judgment of traders who are putting their capital at risk. If the market consistently deviates from analyst expectations, it could signal differing interpretations of key financial indicators or a unique assessment of MPC’s performance potential. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, whereas this market reflects real-time speculation.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether MPC will beat earnings. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The current price indicates the market's collective expectation, and changes in price demonstrate shifts in sentiment regarding MPC’s earnings performance.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Marathon Petroleum’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus EPS estimate from financial data providers at the time of the earnings release. The final price of shares in this market will reflect whether MPC ultimately beat, met, or missed those earnings expectations, as determined by publicly available financial data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding MPC’s operational performance, changes in oil prices, or broader economic indicators could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements from MPC’s management team, such as revisions to guidance or strategic shifts, would also likely have a substantial impact. Furthermore, analyst upgrades or downgrades, and even general market volatility, can all contribute to price fluctuations in this market as traders react to new information and adjust their expectations.