TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 1:03 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
María Corina Machado is a Venezuelan opposition politician who has been barred from running for office. This market tracks whether she physically returns to Venezuelan territory before January 1, 2027, which would be a significant political development given the current political climate and restrictions she faces.
Kalshi
The market resolves Yes if María Corina Machado achieves physical presence within Venezuela's internationally recognized geographic boundaries at any point before January 1, 2027. Physical presence requires actual entry into Venezuelan territory; flying over without landing, remaining in airport terminals or airplanes during layovers, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or confinement to embassy or consulate grounds do not qualify. International airports within Venezuela are considered part of Venezuelan territory. Evidence of a visit must be documented by at least one Source Agency through official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs or videos from identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or posts from official social media accounts. Visits that commenced before market creation are excluded. The market operates across three sequential time windows (August 1, October 1, and January 1, 2027), with resolution to Yes occurring upon confirmation of any qualifying visit within the earliest applicable deadline.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a roughly 75% chance of María Corina Machado visiting Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027. This contrasts with traditional polling data, which often struggles to accurately gauge future events like this. Polls typically measure stated intentions, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can highlight discrepancies in informed opinion versus general sentiment. It’s important to remember that both methods have limitations when assessing the likelihood of a political visit.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of the event occurring. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the likelihood of Machado’s visit. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect changing expectations. Currently, the top outcome, that Machado will visit Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, is trading at a price indicating a substantial probability, driven by the volume of $67,039.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether María Corina Machado physically enters Venezuelan territory during the specified timeframe. Any visit, regardless of duration or purpose, will constitute a positive resolution. The outcome will be determined by publicly available evidence, such as news reports, official statements, and verified travel records. The focus is on confirming a physical presence within Venezuela’s borders.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any official announcements regarding travel restrictions or permissions for Machado would be a major catalyst. Political developments within Venezuela, such as changes in government policy or internal negotiations, could also shift the odds. Unexpected statements from key political figures, both in Venezuela and internationally, could also impact trader sentiment. Finally, any credible reports of Machado actively planning a trip, or encountering obstacles to one, would likely cause movement in this market before Jan 1, 2027.
