TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 9:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks whether a non-emergency executive order will be signed by Zohran Mamdani during the specified week in October 2026. It focuses on the legislative actions taken by the official within that timeframe. The outcome depends solely on the occurrence of such orders during the given dates.
Kalshi
If the number of non-emergency executive orders signed by Zohran Mamdani is above 0 from Oct 18, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data on the likelihood of executive action. Polling often reflects stated intentions, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can lead to divergences, as prediction markets can incorporate information not captured in polls, such as insider knowledge or nuanced political calculations. It’s common to see prediction markets offer a more accurate forecast than polls, particularly when events are subject to complex factors and strategic considerations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders can buy 'yes' contracts if they believe an executive order will be signed, or 'no' contracts if they believe it won't. The price of each contract represents the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Jan 22, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether an official executive order signed by Mamdani is publicly released during the period from October 18th to October 24th, 2026. The outcome will be determined by publicly available documentation and reporting, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of whether the event occurred as defined by this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from Mamdani's office regarding potential executive actions would be a major catalyst. Unexpected political developments, such as legislative roadblocks or shifts in public pressure, could also influence the odds. Furthermore, news reports detailing internal discussions or draft executive orders could move the market. Finally, broader economic or geopolitical events that might prompt or discourage executive action could also play a role in shaping the trading activity in this market.
