TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 9:15 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the probability of Zohran Mamdani freezing New York City rents before 2027, requiring both his election as Mayor in 2025 and the implementation of 0.0% rent adjustments for rent-stabilized apartments by December 31, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring is 87.2%, aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials. Keep an eye on the results of the 2025 NYC Mayoral election, as that outcome will be a key signal for this market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The platforms differ on the timeframe during which the 0% rent adjustment must be legally effective to resolve 'Yes'.Hero tip: Focus on the likelihood of a rent freeze being *implemented* by the end of 2026, as Polymarket requires, while acknowledging Kalshi allows for effectiveness through September 30, 2027.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Requires both Mamdani winning the 2025 election *and* a 0.0% rent adjustment being in effect by December 31, 2026. "The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date."
- Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if a 0% rent adjustment for one- and two-year leases commencing October 1, 2026, through September 30, 2027, takes legal effect. "If New York City’s 0% rent adjustment for both one- and two-year rent-stabilized apartment leases commencing from October 1, 2026 through September 30, 2027, takes legal effect, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify. If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify. Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide. If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.
Kalshi
If New York City’s 0% rent adjustment for both one- and two-year rent-stabilized apartment leases commencing from October 1, 2026 through September 30, 2027, takes legal effect, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any statements from Mayor Adams regarding rent control policies, or legislative proposals introduced in the City Council, would likely cause price fluctuations. Economic data related to housing costs and affordability in NYC could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected legal challenges to existing rent regulations or shifts in the political landscape could also move the market. Finally, any public announcements from relevant government agencies regarding potential rent adjustments will be closely watched and could lead to substantial changes in the odds.