TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:05 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lauren Boebert announces, on or before the date specified in the market title, 11:59 PM ET, that she has resigned or will resign as United States Representative for Colorado's 4th congressional district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The deadline applies to the timing of the announcement, not the effective date of the resignation. An announcement made by the deadline that she will resign on a later date, including a date after the specified deadline, will qualify. If it becomes impossible for Lauren Boebert to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", it is only necessary that Lauren Boebert announce that she has resigned or will resign. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. An announcement that she will not seek re-election, or that she is ending her 2026 campaign, will not qualify on its own. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lauren Boebert or the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lauren Boebert announces, on or before the date specified in the market title, 11:59 PM ET, that she has resigned or will resign as United States Representative for Colorado's 4th congressional district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The deadline applies to the timing of the announcement, not the effective date of the resignation. An announcement made by the deadline that she will resign on a later date, including a date after the specified deadline, will qualify. If it becomes impossible for Lauren Boebert to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", it is only necessary that Lauren Boebert announce that she has resigned or will resign. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. An announcement that she will not seek re-election, or that she is ending her 2026 campaign, will not qualify on its own. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Lauren Boebert or the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between this market and traditional polling data regarding Representative Boebert's potential resignation. Polls often capture a snapshot of public opinion at a specific moment, while this market reflects the aggregated predictions of informed traders. These traders consider a wider range of factors beyond simple approval ratings, including political calculations, legal challenges, and personal circumstances. Therefore, discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and polling averages are common and don't necessarily indicate an inaccuracy in either method. It’s a different way to gauge potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of Representative Boebert resigning by the specified date. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a growing belief in resignation. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the collective wisdom of participants, constantly adjusting to new information and evolving perceptions of the situation.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will hinge on whether Representative Boebert officially submits a letter of resignation from her position in the House of Representatives before the resolution date. Any official announcement or documentation confirming her resignation will serve as the basis for determining the outcome of this market. The focus is solely on a formal resignation, and any other actions or events will not impact the resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any legal developments related to Representative Boebert, such as investigations or potential charges, could increase the probability of resignation. Major shifts in her political standing, including loss of committee assignments or censure votes, could also move the market. Additionally, personal factors, such as health concerns or family matters, could influence her decision. Public statements from Representative Boebert herself, or from key political figures, would also be closely watched by traders and likely cause price fluctuations.
