TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Before Nov 3, 2026
- Kalshi
Before Nov 3, 2026 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 10, 2026
Time left: 07d:11h:44m
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Jasmine Crockett personally participates in at least one campaign activity, such as a rally, fundraiser, campaign advertisement, canvassing event, or phone-banking effort, in which she specifically and expressly advocates for James Talarico’s election in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election before Nov 3, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks whether a prominent political figure will actively campaign for a specific candidate in an upcoming U.S. Senate election in Texas. The question examines whether this individual will participate in direct campaign activities such as rallies, fundraisers, advertisements, or voter outreach efforts where she explicitly endorses the candidate's election.
Kalshi
If Jasmine Crockett personally participates in at least one campaign activity, such as a rally, fundraiser, campaign advertisement, canvassing event, or phone-banking effort, in which she specifically and expressly advocates for James Talarico’s election in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of public opinion, this market reflects what participants believe will *actually* happen, factoring in a wider range of information and strategic considerations. It’s important to remember that polls measure stated preferences, while this market measures incentivized predictions. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where conventional wisdom might diverge from likely outcomes, or where hidden information influences trader behavior. This can be a useful signal for those following the race.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the likelihood of the event occurring. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of the outcome. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price fluctuates, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current probability, as indicated by the market price, is 7.0%, with a total volume of $10,654 traded so far.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will depend on whether any of the recognized news agencies report that Jasmine Crockett personally participates in at least one campaign activity specifically advocating for James Talarico’s election. This includes rallies, fundraisers, advertisements, canvassing, or phone banking. The focus is on direct, public support for Talarico’s candidacy before November 3, 2026.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any official statement from Jasmine Crockett regarding her support for James Talarico, or a lack thereof, would be a major catalyst. Major endorsements of Talarico by other prominent figures could also influence trader sentiment, as could significant shifts in the overall political landscape in Texas. News coverage of Talarico’s campaign and his fundraising efforts will also be closely watched. Finally, any public appearances or interactions between Crockett and Talarico could move the market as traders assess the likelihood of a formal campaign endorsement.
