TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:57 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for Google’s stock. While some analysts predict continued growth, this market incorporates a wider range of opinions and potential outcomes, as expressed by traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and polls or analyst reports, as markets often synthesize information more quickly and efficiently, responding to new data and events in real-time. This dynamic makes this market a valuable complement to traditional financial analysis.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Google's stock will close above the target price. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the traders. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price fluctuates based on supply and demand, influenced by news, earnings reports, and overall market sentiment. Higher demand for shares indicating a 'yes' outcome will drive up the price, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the closing stock price of Google (GOOGL) on the last trading day of October is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official closing price as reported by a major financial exchange. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their shares align with the actual outcome – those who predicted the stock would close above the target price will receive a payout, while those who bet against it will not.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major catalysts include Google’s quarterly earnings reports, any significant announcements regarding new products or services, and broader macroeconomic trends affecting the technology sector. Unexpected news regarding regulatory scrutiny or competition could also have a substantial impact. Shifts in overall market sentiment, particularly concerning growth stocks, will likely influence trading activity and, consequently, the price of shares in this market. Any large-scale changes in investor confidence could also trigger significant price movements.