TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket

Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings?

Volume:
$2,289

Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 8:01 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,289
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Estée Lauder is estimated to release earnings on November 2, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Estée Lauder’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.52 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Estée Lauder reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.52 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Estée Lauder releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Estée Lauder is estimated to release earnings on November 2, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Estée Lauder’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.52 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Estée Lauder reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.52 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Estée Lauder releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Estée Lauder earnings market displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how traders are pricing in the likelihood of Estée Lauder beating quarterly earnings expectations. Currently, the volume is $518, indicating the level of recent activity in this market. The total volume traded to date is $2,289, offering insight into overall interest. This information is updated in real-time, providing a dynamic view of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts regarding Estée Lauder’s upcoming earnings. While many analysts predict a slight miss, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to note that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available in standard financial analysis. This can lead to divergences from consensus estimates. The market’s collective prediction represents a real-time assessment of the probability of a positive earnings surprise.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Estée Lauder will beat quarterly earnings. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and changing sentiment. Higher demand for shares indicating a beat increases the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether Estée Lauder’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate published by financial data providers prior to the earnings release. The final price of shares in this market will reflect whether Estée Lauder successfully surpassed those expectations, providing a clear outcome for traders. This allows for a definitive assessment of the market’s predictive accuracy.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any news regarding Estée Lauder’s sales figures, particularly in key markets like China, would be closely watched. Updates on consumer spending trends, especially within the luxury goods sector, could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, broader macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation data and interest rate decisions, may play a role. Finally, any unexpected announcements from Estée Lauder’s competitors or changes in analyst ratings could cause shifts in the price of shares in this market.