TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 9:05 AM EST
Predict
As of market creation, Eli Lilly is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Eli Lilly’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $7.49 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eli Lilly reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $7.49 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Eli Lilly releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Eli Lilly is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Eli Lilly’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $7.49 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eli Lilly reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $7.49 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Eli Lilly releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts regarding Eli Lilly’s potential to beat quarterly earnings. While analysts typically provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a probability-based assessment. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the inclusion of various factors considered by market participants, such as insider information or nuanced interpretations of company performance. It’s valuable to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion.
On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Eli Lilly will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that increased buying pressure will raise the price, indicating growing confidence in a positive earnings surprise, and vice versa. This creates a constantly updated, real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether Eli Lilly’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus EPS estimate from financial data providers at the time of the earnings release. The final price of the contracts will reflect whether Eli Lilly ultimately beat, met, or missed earnings expectations, as determined by this comparison.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news related to Eli Lilly’s drug pipeline, including clinical trial results or regulatory approvals, could impact expectations. Broader economic indicators, particularly those related to the pharmaceutical industry or healthcare spending, could also play a role. Furthermore, any revisions to analyst estimates or commentary from key industry figures could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Unexpected news regarding competitors could also affect sentiment.