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419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
- Polymarket
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
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Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 10, 2026
Time left: 01d:01h:27m
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
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Intro
This market tracks the probability of Democrats winning Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine in the 2026 midterm elections. Currently, the consensus probability of Democrats winning all four races is 69.0%, while the probability of Democrats winning the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine is 67.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official election certifications). Keep an eye on the results of the November 10, 2026 elections as that date represents the end of the betting period and will likely trigger resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms define success as Democrats winning all four specified Senate races.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official election certifications)Core resolution logic:
- Democrats must win the Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine.
- Any run-off elections in these states are included in the resolution.
- The Democratic nominee must win each race; independent or third-party candidates do not count.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie in any of the races, the official certification process for that state will determine the winner for resolution purposes.
- Candidate Withdrawal: If a Democratic candidate withdraws from a race after the market has opened, the market will resolve based on the performance of the replacement candidate, assuming they are the official Democratic nominee.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Kalshi
If Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating potential shifts in the political landscape. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like poll weighting, sample bias, and the ability of market participants to trade on inside information or nuanced analyses. This market provides a real-money forecast, incentivizing accuracy in a way that polls do not.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors, including differing user bases, trading volumes, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with varying levels of expertise and access to information, leading to distinct price discovery processes. Furthermore, the liquidity available on each platform influences price volatility and responsiveness to new information. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? at 65.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine? at 62.0%, illustrating this dynamic.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the results of the senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official election results declared by relevant authorities. Traders will be able to see a clear determination of whether Democrats have secured victories in all four races, finalizing the outcome of this market. The outcome will be determined by the official results of the election.
Numerous events could significantly impact this market. Major economic announcements, shifts in national or state-level polling data, significant campaign fundraising reports, and unexpected candidate gaffes could all influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any developments related to voter access, election security, or legal challenges could introduce volatility. The release of endorsements from prominent figures or changes in the political landscape surrounding these races are also likely to move the market. Any unexpected news related to the candidates or their campaigns could move this market.