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Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket

Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings?

Oct 26, 2026, 8:03 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$1,346
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$764
3%
Open interest:
$367N/A

Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

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Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:15h:18m

Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings?

96%chance
Amount

$

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At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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polymarket

Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings?

Trade
96%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
$764
$1,346
0%
N/A
N/A
2d 15h 18m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, ConocoPhillips is estimated to release earnings on November 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for ConocoPhillips’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.99 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if ConocoPhillips reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.99 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If ConocoPhillips releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, ConocoPhillips is estimated to release earnings on November 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for ConocoPhillips’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.99 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if ConocoPhillips reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.99 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If ConocoPhillips releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the ConocoPhillips earnings market tracks the current odds of whether ConocoPhillips will beat quarterly earnings expectations. You can view the probability assigned to the 'Yes' outcome, which currently stands at 95.5%. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded in this market, currently $1,346, and the 24-hour volume, which is $11. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of a positive earnings report from ConocoPhillips.

Currently, prediction market participants are indicating a 95.5% probability that ConocoPhillips will exceed quarterly earnings expectations. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often present a range of estimates. It’s important to note that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating information not readily available to or reflected in standard financial analysis. Discrepancies between this market and analyst predictions can highlight differing perspectives on the company’s performance and future outlook.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether ConocoPhillips will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that increased buying pressure will raise the price and the implied probability, while increased selling pressure will lower it. This creates a fluid and responsive assessment of the event's likelihood.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether ConocoPhillips’ reported earnings per share (EPS) for the relevant quarter exceed the consensus EPS estimate of financial analysts at the time of the earnings release. The exact source for the consensus EPS estimate will be publicly available at resolution. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or account for any losses based on the final outcome.

Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news related to ConocoPhillips’ operations, such as updates on production levels, oil prices, or significant contracts, could shift trader sentiment. Broader economic indicators, particularly those related to the energy sector, will also play a role. Unexpected announcements from competitors or changes in analyst ratings for ConocoPhillips could also cause significant movement. Finally, any unforeseen geopolitical events impacting the oil market could influence the market's trajectory.