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Will Circle (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Will Circle (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings?

Oct 26, 2026, 8:01 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$1,023
Volume 24h:
$495N/A
Liquidity:
$154
24%
Open interest:
$290N/A

Will Circle (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Circle (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

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Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:09h:06m

Will Circle (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings?

52%chance
Amount

$

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At 84¢ buys you 119 shares | Odds: 52% Total Payout: $119 | Net Profit: $19 Multiplier: 1.19x | ROI: 19% APY not meaningful Low liquidity
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Will Circle (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings?

Trade
52%
21%
Yes 84¢No 81¢
65¢
$154
$1,023
94%
5,014%
N/A
1d 9h 6m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Circle is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Circle's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.37 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Circle reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.37 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Circle releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Circle is estimated to release earnings on November 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Circle's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.37 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Circle reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.37 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Circle releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Circle earnings market tracks the current odds of Circle beating quarterly earnings expectations, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $495, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,023. This provides a clear view of market sentiment and activity surrounding Circle’s upcoming earnings report. The dashboard is a central place to monitor how traders are assessing the likelihood of a positive earnings surprise.

Currently, the implied probability from this market reflects traders’ collective belief about Circle exceeding earnings expectations. This often differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which may be based on different methodologies or have varying degrees of bias. Discrepancies can arise from the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, where the market aggregates diverse information and perspectives. If analysts are generally optimistic, we might see a higher probability reflected in this market, but if traders have access to unique insights, the market could diverge significantly from the consensus analyst view.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Circle will beat earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds remain responsive to the latest developments and reflect the collective intelligence of the participants. The market's depth and volume contribute to the accuracy of the price signal.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether Circle’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus EPS estimate provided by financial analysts prior to the earnings release. The specific consensus estimate used for resolution will be determined by Polymarket and made publicly available. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or losses based on the final outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news related to Circle’s business performance, such as pre-earnings announcements, changes in key metrics, or industry trends, could cause the odds to shift. Broader macroeconomic factors, like interest rate changes or overall market sentiment, could also play a role. Unexpected news regarding the cryptocurrency market, given Circle’s involvement with USDC, would likely have a substantial impact. Finally, revisions to analyst earnings estimates leading up to the release will be closely watched by traders in this market.