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Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket

Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?

Oct 26, 2026, 8:03 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$250
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$140
103%
Open interest:
$150N/A

Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

1W

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:16h:23m

Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?

54%chance
Amount

$

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At 84¢ buys you 119 shares | Odds: 54% Total Payout: $119 | Net Profit: $19 Multiplier: 1.19x | ROI: 19% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 2 days to resolution
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polymarket

Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?

Trade
54%
Yes 84¢No 76¢
60¢
$140
$250
0%
N/A
N/A
2d 16h 23m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, BGC Group is estimated to release earnings on November 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for BGC Group’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if BGC Group reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If BGC Group releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, BGC Group is estimated to release earnings on November 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for BGC Group’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if BGC Group reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If BGC Group releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the BGC earnings market tracks the current odds of BGC Group beating quarterly earnings expectations. You can view the probability of the 'Yes' outcome, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $250. The total volume traded on this market is $250. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to analyze how the market has priced in new information over time. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment surrounding BGC’s upcoming earnings report.

Currently, the implied probability of BGC Group beating quarterly earnings, as reflected in this market, is 54.0%. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often present a range of expectations. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and analyst consensus, as prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd and can react more quickly to new information. The market’s collective prediction offers a unique perspective, potentially identifying insights missed by individual analysts or traditional financial models. Examining these differences can be valuable for informed decision-making.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether BGC Group will exceed earnings expectations. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of the 'Yes' outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts, providing a real-time assessment of market sentiment. The market's depth, indicated by bid and ask sizes, also influences price discovery, ensuring a liquid and efficient trading environment for participants.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether BGC Group’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus EPS estimate from financial data providers at the time of the earnings release. The market will settle to 100% if BGC beats expectations and 0% if it fails to do so. Traders should monitor official BGC Group financial releases for the definitive resolution data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to resolution. Any news related to BGC Group’s performance, such as pre-earnings announcements, industry trends, or macroeconomic data releases, could trigger price movements. Unexpected changes in analyst ratings or revisions to earnings estimates would also likely impact trading activity. Furthermore, broader market sentiment and overall economic conditions can play a role. Major news events affecting the financial sector or specific competitors of BGC Group could also cause shifts in the odds within this market.