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Will Arm (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket

Will Arm (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?

Oct 26, 2026, 8:03 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,219
Volume 24h:
$243N/A
Liquidity:
$1,012
3%
Open interest:
$1,039N/A

Will Arm (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Arm (ARM) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

1W

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Neutral

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Vol.

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Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:20h:43m

Will Arm (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?

91%chance
Amount

$

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At 93¢ buys you 108 shares | Odds: 91% Total Payout: $108 | Net Profit: $8 Multiplier: 1.08x | ROI: 8% APY not meaningful 2 days to resolution
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polymarket

Will Arm (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?

Trade
91%
4%
Yes 93¢No 11¢
4¢
$1,012
$1,219
25%
N/A
N/A
2d 20h 43m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Arm is estimated to release earnings on November 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Arm’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.48 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arm reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.48 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Arm releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Arm is estimated to release earnings on November 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Arm’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.48 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arm reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.48 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Arm releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Arm earnings market tracks the current odds of Arm beating quarterly earnings, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $243, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,219. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding Arm’s upcoming earnings report. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of how the crowd is predicting the outcome.

Currently, prediction market participants are indicating a 91.0% probability that Arm will beat quarterly earnings. This compares to a range of analyst forecasts, which vary depending on the firm. Some analysts predict Arm will exceed expectations, while others anticipate a miss or a result in line with current estimates. It’s important to note that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than individual analyst opinions. This market reflects a real-time assessment of the likelihood of a positive earnings surprise.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Arm will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of traders. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe Arm will beat earnings, the higher the share price will climb, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing system that attempts to accurately represent the probability of the event occurring.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Arm’s reported earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate provided by financial analysts prior to the earnings release. The final price of shares in this market will then reflect the actual outcome of Arm’s earnings report. Traders who correctly predicted the result will profit, while those who predicted incorrectly will lose their stake.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news related to Arm’s performance, such as pre-earnings guidance updates, industry trends, or competitor announcements, could influence trader sentiment. Macroeconomic factors, like overall market conditions or changes in interest rates, might also play a role. Unexpected news regarding key customers or supply chain disruptions could also impact the market. Furthermore, major analyst revisions to their earnings estimates for Arm could shift the odds in this market.