TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 11:07 PM EST
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Apple (AAPL) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Apple (AAPL), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Apple (AAPL) trades governs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Apple (AAPL) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Apple (AAPL), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Apple (AAPL) trades governs.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast from traders on Opinion. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as they represent a 'wisdom of the crowd' approach, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. While analysts may focus on fundamental factors, this market incorporates real-time sentiment and speculative trading. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the inclusion of factors not typically considered in standard financial analysis, such as unexpected news events or shifts in investor confidence.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts predicting Apple will finish above the target price, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Apple (AAPL) stock on the Friday of the week of October 12 will be compared to the market’s target price. If the closing price is above the target, the 'yes' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'no' outcome will be considered the result. The resolution will be based on publicly available financial data from established sources.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Major announcements from Apple regarding new products, earnings reports, or changes in company leadership would likely have a substantial impact. Broader economic news, such as interest rate decisions or inflation data, could also influence investor sentiment towards Apple and its stock. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in the overall market trend could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market, as traders adjust their positions based on evolving information.