TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
- Polymarket
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%? - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 15h:04m:49s
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
$
Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States. For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States. For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the implied probability of any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election being within 0.01% is high, with 27.5% suggesting a strong expectation of at least one very close race. This contrasts with polling averages, which typically focus on broader vote share estimates rather than pinpointing races within such a narrow margin. While polls can indicate overall trends, this market reflects a more specific assessment of the potential for extremely tight outcomes. It's important to remember that prediction markets aggregate diverse information and individual insights, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional polling data.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what percentage of the outcome traders believe is likely. Higher demand for shares increases the price, signaling growing confidence in a close election result, while increased selling pressure lowers the price. The market's price dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on official election results reported by relevant state and federal election authorities. If any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election is determined to have a margin of victory of 0.01% or less, the market will settle in favor of the 'yes' outcome. Otherwise, it will settle in favor of 'no'. The focus is purely on the final certified vote counts and the resulting margin of victory in eligible races.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major shifts in polling data, particularly in closely contested races, would likely impact trader sentiment. Unexpected endorsements, campaign finance reports, or significant political events could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, any news related to potential voting irregularities or challenges to election results could introduce volatility. Finally, the release of early voting data and any indications of unusually high or low turnout in key demographics could all move this market as traders react to the evolving information landscape.
